Crime and Firearms Research
About me and this project
Firearms politics is a contentious issue. Politically I’m a relatively Liberal person who believes for example in equal rights for minorities, gay marriage, individual body autonomy, social safety nets implemented by Universal Basic Income, and the importance of a market based economy driven by fair and just regulations rather than crony capitalism, but who diverges strongly from the Democratic Party platform when it comes to firearms. I believe that each person bears some responsibility for protecting society, their family, and their fellow citizens from crime, from political violence, and from other risks to health such as pandemic viruses. To me firearms in the hands of responsible citizens are like vaccines against contagious pathogens, and are a responsibility we should all wield for mutual benefit, and that through training and proper usage, firearms are a net benefit to society, particularly in so far as they empower minorities, women, and other vulnerable groups to resist violence from physically more powerful people (primarily male criminals).
I am however a data analyst at heart, with a strong belief that Bayesian causal and mechanistic/structural methods are the correct way to assess what we can learn from data. And I am a strong believer in Open Science. These analyses are based on data collected off the internet, archived into the data directories, and using code which is right here in the repository for you to read. You can and should use my repository to perform your own analysis, and feel free to discuss alternative analyses openly, and respectfully. I do not claim that my analyses are error-free nor are they definitively the correct analysis to perform, only that given the analysis choices I made, and whatever bugs there may be in the code, the results are what you see here
Some core questions!
- Does the prevalence of civilian owned guns cause major differences in violence across international comparisons?
- Does the number of civilian owned US guns or the right/license to legally carry them cause violence in the US?
- What is responsible for the most gun deaths in the US?
- Suicide is responsible for about 2/3 of gun related deaths
- Black Market Drug Related Crime is responsible for about X% of US violent gun crime (Research Not Available Yet)
- What factors are related to violence across countries?
- The Gini Coefficient and income inequality strongly predicts violence in International Comparisons
- Did Australia reduce violence by banning and confiscating guns in 1996?
- The evidence suggests that banning and confiscating guns probably increased violence in Australia starting in 1996 going through about 2001 when their economic “miracle” began and strongly suppressed crime of all types. Firearms in Australia have been on the rise ever since the confiscation and crime has been generally down.
- Did Australia reduce suicide by banning and confiscating guns in 1996?
- No. Suicide decreased in Australia starting before 1996 primarily due to reducing in suicide by “gas” (ovens or cars in a closed garage etc). After the confiscation of firearms, firearms suicides declined rapidly, but were more than made up for by people choosing hanging as an alternative. The sum of firearms + hanging actually increased post ban. There is no “control” group with which to compare, but there is really no evidence that overall suicide rates were impeded by lack of gun access.
- No. Suicide decreased in Australia starting before 1996 primarily due to reducing in suicide by “gas” (ovens or cars in a closed garage etc). After the confiscation of firearms, firearms suicides declined rapidly, but were more than made up for by people choosing hanging as an alternative. The sum of firearms + hanging actually increased post ban. There is no “control” group with which to compare, but there is really no evidence that overall suicide rates were impeded by lack of gun access.
- Are “mass public shootings” on the rise in the US because of “all the guns” especially “assault rifles”?
- Mass public shootings such as school and workplace shootings are definitely on the rise in the US. However these are still mostly committed by people using handguns.
- How often are guns used to prevent violence?
- I don’t have research on this as of now.
- Are gun law restrictions used to target out-groups?
- I dont’ have research on this as of now.
- Are some guns (assault weapons for example) particularly problematic?
- Yes, handguns, not assault rifles, are the ones most often used in violent crime, even in mass public shootings. They are also more frequently used in suicide by far.
- What are some non-gun policies that would reduce violence?
- Working on this analysis. My own thesis is that income inequality, lack of economic growth, lack of housing, drug laws, and uneven access to family resources are the main factors in growth of US crime. I intend to build an index of “cost of basic living” and compare its change across time and location.
- Why have public shootings been increasing so dramatically in the US?
- Experts who have interviewed surviving shooters, their families, and soforth tend to agree that these mass shootings are a form of suicide. Perpetrators do not intend to survive but do intend to send a message of how badly in psychological pain they were. “There’s this really consistent pathway. Early childhood trauma seems to be the foundation, whether violence in the home, sexual assault, parental suicides, extreme bullying. Then you see the build toward hopelessness, despair, isolation, self-loathing, oftentimes rejection from peers. That turns into a really identifiable crisis point where they’re acting differently. Sometimes they have previous suicide attempts.” (Jillian Peterson, see link above).
- Social conditions in the US lead to these childhood traumatic experiences. Parents in poverty, children living in environments with high violent drug and gang activity, homelessness, and school bullying all contribute to negative events that push young men especially towards violence. (research pending)